It's Caulfield Cup day on Saturday and popular tipster Laurie Sainsbury has shares his thoughts on the big race as well as his other tips.
STATE OF PLAY (Caulfield Race 3 No 13)
This is the throw at the stumps runner for the weekend. The filly has only had five starts, ran on in the Widden Stakes on debut, spelled, then resumed with a fourth beaten five lengths behind Alizee at Warwick Farm, followed that up with a fourth at Newcastle. She then stepped up from 1350m to 1600m at Wyong, improving sharply to run second to Badge Of Gameness, the third horse Shaolin Kungfu has won since at Doomben. Her most recent start over 2000m at Hawkesbury she ran a track record in winning a maiden by three lengths. Speed ok with Coral Coast and Pres de Toi leading and hopefully State Of Play gets the gun run. Gerald Ryan has snapped up Craig Williams to ride, that to me looks a significant indicator that she has a decent chance at good odds.
BET: EACH-WAY
ODDS $27 @ Sportsbet ($36 Power Play)
KIWIA (Caulfield Race 5 No 10)
Will Darren Weir wave his wand and produce another improver like Trust In A Gust or Stratum Star in this progressive galloper. His record reads (9:5-1-2) and his only unplaced run was here at Caulfield in a carnage race won by Winbern, he was beaten less than a length. He was spelled after the next run when he won the Victoria Gold stayers race over 2400m and then resumed at Ballarat. First-up won the Gold Nugget and then went to Murtoa. What a disaster that was, carrying 60kg was out the back (10 lengths) and when making his run on the turn was seven and eight wide, before being beaten two lengths. Loves this track and Damian Lane is one for one on him. Speed genuine with Lord Durante and Gallante going forward and Assign may also press on.
BET: WIN
ODDS $7.50 @ CrownBet
INFERENCE (Caulfield Race 8 No 9)
This horse resumed in the Warwick Stakes at Randwick when sixth, beaten four lengths by Winx, raced three wide the trip and forced wider on the turn. Second-up he looked just so, so when ninth beaten six lengths by Humidor. However, next start in the Underwood he was terrific late when beaten 2-1/2 lengths by Bonneval and in doing so ran the equal quickest last 200m of the race with the winner. Last week he had what I would call a pipe opener for this race, flopped out of the gates, gradually improved along the fence and then held up behind Single Gaze when full of running. He will be cherry ripe for this. You could make a seriously strong case to say the he should have won last year's Victoria Derby. He drew 16 of 16 and late in the race was poleaxed yet came again to run third to Prized Icon. Jon Snow and Marmelo lead and hopefully he gets in midfield with cover.
BET: EACH WAY
ODDS $15 Sportsbet ($18 Power Play), CrownBet
FRENCH EMOTION (Caulfield Race 9 No 5)
Looking for value here with this Chris Waller-trained mare. She resumed at Flemington in the Blazer Stakes, a race won by Now Or Later, she meets her 3kg better in this and has decent second-up form. Two runs back prior to her spell she drew the widest in the Tatts Tiara at Doomben. The winner Tycoon Tara led and controlled the race but this mare was more than acceptable despite the three-length margin. Her last win was here at Caulfield over this trip. The speed should be good with Sword Of Light from inside and Global Glamour out wide pressing on and Fille Champagne and Savanna Amour may make them both work. In the toughest race of the day a small ticket each-way but saving on Shillelagh the stablemate, she's also ready.
BET: EACH- WAY
ODDS $31 Ladbrokes ($51 Odds Boost), Luxbet, William Hill
