For many players in the bloodstock game, the current downturn is something they have seen before, but for those younger participants whose memories don’t extend back to 1990, we’ve gone back through the stats to see if there are any lessons to learn.
1989 was seen as a boom year in bloodstock with record prices paid at the Inglis Australian Easter Yearling Sale including five yearlings that sold for $1million or more.
The average of $106,832, was up 74% on the previous year’s $61,308 which was in turn up 41% on the 1987 average of $43,292.
The bubble of course burst shortly after in no uncertain terms as major buyers Bart Cummings and Tommy Smith could not settle their debt, with many of the horses later sold by Inglis in a one off fire sale dubbed the ‘Night of Stars’.
But more importantly, back to the crash.
The Inglis Australian Easter Yearling Sale in 1990 copped a savage hit, the average fell by 52% to $51,485, the median by 38%, the aggregate by 57% and the top priced horse at the sale that year fetched just $550,000.
The clearance rate of 76.9% providing another insight into what a catastrophic sale this was.
In 1991, the situation stabilized to some degree, but did not improve, the average falling a further 21% to $40,736, the median down 19% and the aggregate down 8%, boosted by vendors meeting the market with the clearance climbing to 87%.
From 1992 onwards the recovery kicked in and gradually gained momentum but it was not until 1998 that the average at Easter again topped $100,000 and 1999 before a horse was sold for $1million.
That horse incidentally was a close relation to this year’s sale-topper being a Thunder Gulch (USA) filly (she made $1.2 million to the bid of Gooree Stud) from Dancing Show (USA), whose daughter Show Dancing (NZ) produced the Encosta de Lago colt that made $1.8 million for Emirates Park.
When looked at in the context of the 1990 crash, results from this year’s Inglis Australian Easter Yearling Sale are certainly nowhere near as bad as they may have been and reflect the overall better, stronger and broader base on which the industry is now built.
Vendors that survived the 1990 crash and have continued to flourish include Arrowfield Stud and Widden Stud, so it might be no coincidence they are the first two major farms to set their fees in the wake of the current economic downturn.
Arrowfield Stud launched Danehill (USA) (pictured left) in 1990 at the very bottom of the market and for those that chose to re-invest at that point and punt the young son of Danzig the rewards were tenfold.
“Danehill was advertised at $37,500 for the 1990 season, but had to be discounted to fill his book and his fee went as low as $20,000 before his first two year-olds appeared,” recalled bloodstock agent Les Young of Doncaster Bloodstock.
If there is a lesson here it may be not to expect too much too soon in the way of recovery and that it may be a bumpy road for a while yet.
From 1992 onwards the recovery kicked in and gradually gained momentum but it was not until 1998 that the average at Easter again topped $100,000 and 1999 before a horse was sold for $1million.