Top bets from Paul Joice for Grand Finals weekend
Paul Joice - Thursday September 28

It's a Group I bonanza of racing this weekend and I can't wait to get involved with bets at Randwick on Saturday and Caulfield on Sunday.

Punters can't get enough of the Happy Clapper.

SEABABE (Randwick Race 3 No 12)
This is my speculator. Massive odds on offer but there is a bit to like about this Sebring filly. She has form around third favourite Langley when close-up at Hawkesbury over a mile two runs back. But then she stepped up to 1850m and was heavily backed when scoring a soft win in Class 1 company despite being a maiden at the time. Now she tackles the Randwick mile with 53kg, Glen Boss goes on and there looks to be genuine pace/pressure on paper. Some of these three-year-olds won't see out a strong mile – Seababe is already a winner over 1850m. I know which one will still be finishing hard at the business end.
BET: EACH-WAY
ODDS $31 @Sportsbet ($46 PowerPlay)

CHAUTAUQUA (Randwick Race 6 No 1)
I can't see how anything is going to hold out the mighty grey Chautauqua around 1200m at Randwick under weight-for-age conditions. His past three attempts around this route have resulted in three victories in the Group I TJ Smith. He's beaten the best and whilst this is a decent line-up – it's still a Group II. A dry track suits and there appears an abundance of pace/pressure on paper through the likes of Ball Of Muscle, In Her Time and The Monstar. The first-up run of Chautauqua was off the charts and he'll be much fitter for this. Only bad luck can beat him here.
BET: WIN
ODDS $3.30 @ Sportsbet ($3.70 PowerPlay)

HAPPY CLAPPER (Randwick Race 7 No 1)
Backing the topweight in the Epsom Handicap as a short-priced favourite would usually throw out a red flag but not when it's Happy Clapper – he'll be winning. Has never raced better and the good track combined with a soft draw was the final nail in the coffin for his rivals. Has the tactical pace to trail the leaders if the speed doesn't go on and if it does then he'll be able to give them a start and reel them in. Has Winx form through his courageous second in the George Main and had the measure of Tom Melbourne when powering over the top of him in the Tramway. Has finished top two at four of his five previous Randwick mile attempts and two of those were when trumped by Winx. There is no Winx here, I've got Tom Melbourne as the main danger – that instils extra confidence.
BET: WIN
ODDS $3.10 @ William Hill ($3.40 PricePump)

KEMENTARI (Caulfield Sunday Race 6 No 6)
I've got to take on the Melbourne three-year-old form and with such tempting odds available for Kementari – I'm getting involved. Looked in need of the run when resuming in the Run to the Rose, closed off better than anything and will improve out to the 1400m. Drawn perfectly and can utilise that barrier whilst main rival Royal Symphony has drawn out. Merchant Navy gave us a glimpse of how the Melbourne form would stack-up against the Sydney form – and whilst he did find some trouble in the run it was hardly anything to get excited about. If anything, it's confirmed what I already suspected – the Sydney form is superior.
BET: WIN
ODDS $6.50 @ Bet365

BONNEVAL (Caulfield Sunday Race 7 No 8)
Hartnell has won one from his past eight starts and Black Heart Bart hasn't won in seven months, yet they are both shorter in the market than Bonneval. The Kiwi has won her past five starts – two of those at Group I level. She shouldn't have been suited around Moonee Valley first-up and was supposed to need the run, but she simply rounded them up and went right on with it. Suited second-up stepping up from the mile to 1800m. There appears some genuine pace engaged through the likes of Hartnell, He's Our Rokki, Black Heart Bart and Single Gaze which should provide a charmed run for Hugh Bowman. I've got her on top even if the market disagrees.
BET: WIN
ODDS $5 @ William Hill ($6 PricePump)

 

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