Top bets from The Armchair Punter for Moonee Valley & Rosehill Saturday

Stephen Brassel - Friday August 25

I've dug deep into Rosehill and Moonee Valley in quest of a winner and mixed them up between the two venues but reckon I've found a few and consequently betting with a good deal of confidence.

I'm confident this bloke can win if he sneaks a run at Moonee Valley on Saturday.

SKYLIGHT GLOW (Rosehill Race 3 No 4)
High class filly during her two and three-year-old days resuming here for her first run at four. Also her first start for the Kris Less yard and invariably his horses race well fresh and it's significant Hugh Bowman has been booked for the mount. She's had three trials leading into this and in the latest looked very good when a strangled second at Newcastle after a solid third behind the classy Artlee in a Gosford 1000m heat. Drawn the outside gate but expecting Bowman will go back and she'll be hitting the line strongly. Significantly had six starts racing clockwise and, after failing on debut in a Canterbury maiden won twice and placed at Group level at her only other three starts racing in that direction, the latest when third in the Group 1 Flight Stakes.
BET: WIN
ODDS: $6 @ Sportsbet ($7 Power Play), William Hill ($7 Price Pump)

ASSIMILATE (Rosehill Race 6 No 2)
Continues to head in the right direction winning his only two starts to date at Kembla Grange and Randwick, both over 1200m and he'll be well suited up to the 1400m. Since getting up to beat Dracarys last time that horse has won the Up And Coming Stakes and Assimilate has gone back to the trials and looked in good order running through the line strongly when a close second over 1050m at Randwick. Again we get Hugh Bowman in the saddle and this bloke looks a real racehorse.
BET: WIN
ODDS: $6.50 @ Bet365

HOGMANAY (Rosehill Race 8 No 1)
Has been a favourite of mine and wasn't far off when we had something on him when a first-up second behind The Pharoah over 1350m here recently. Allowing for the claim meets the winner 3kg better in this and drawn the inside gate to get the perfect run. He'll go forward and race on the speed from the outset and is unbeaten in two starts over the Rosehill 1500m. He's as honest as they come and with the weight turnaround on The Pharoah reckon he's a great bet at the odds on offer.
BET: WIN
ODDS: $7 @ Ladbrokes ($8.50 Odds Boost), Bet365, Bookmaker, Betstar

CHARLEVOIX (Moonee Valley Race 1 No 4)
Expecting to see correct weight here with Charlevoix kicking the day off for us with a nice win. Was a tragedy beaten last time at Flemington behind Kiwia over 2500m and carried 59.5kg on that occasion. Faces a tougher field here but does drop 4kg and Craig Williams sticks from a good gate. Favourite Yogi is very strong but only won a benchmark 78 last time and while he drops 4.5kg is a ridiculously short price around a track which may not suit. Happy to take the punt the 'real' Charlevoix rocks up on the day.
BET: WIN
ODDS: $4.40 @ Sportsbet ($4.80 Power Play), Ladbrokes ($4.80 Odds Boost)

REBELLIOUS LAD (Moonee Valley Race 4 No 19)
He's the fourth emergency but trusting he snatches a run with two already out on Thursday night. Lightly raced but winner his first two and a couple of placings since have both been very good. Latest chased the speed and fought on strongly when beaten narrowly behind Jaminzah 1600m Flemington when he carried 57kg allowing for the 2kg claim. Down to 54.5kg here and drawn awkwardly but there's no doubt he's a talent and happy to take the punt he's up to these if he sneaks into the field.
BET: WIN
ODDS: $4 @ Bet365
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