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NEW: Paul Joice analyses the entire Run To The Rose meeting

Paul Joice - Tuesday September 12

Paul Joice takes an in-depth look at how your money performed and pinpoints some future winners from Rosehill in a race-by-race analysis of Run To The Rose day.

Menari 'The Ferrari' roars away with the Run To The Rose. Photo: Steve Hart

Race 1 – Schweppes Benchmark 76 F&M Handicap (1500m)

1st – Positive Problems ($9)
2nd – Mariquita ($5) – short half head
3rd – Cambage ($7.50) – length
Then followed: Midnight Delight ($4.40), Heartlings ($8.50), Lani Girl ($31), Karavali ($3.30 fav)

 

Analysis: This had the early hallmarks of a regular race until Blake Shinn got to the 1000m mark aboard Positive Problems and decided to push the 'overdrive' button. Bjorn Baker's five-year-old mare responded, racing away with a big lead, four lengths clear upon straightening. She got tired late and renowned fast finisher Mariquita reeled off a final 600m of 33.62 secs to make it interesting, but the bold move proved the difference, providing Positive Problems with her fourth win from 20 starts.

Money Trail: Astute punters got off to a flying start, backing Positive Problems from $14 into $9. Midnight Delight was the other one they wanted, firming from $6 into $4.40.

Blackbooker: Mariquita makes it hard for herself by always settling a long way back in the run but she consistently reels off fast closing sectionals and has finished in the money at three of her past four starts. There are more wins in store – you've just to find the right race.

Race 2 – TAB Highway Class 3 Handicap (1200m)

1st – Suncraze ($2.50 fav)
2nd – Don't Give A Damn ($4.60) – Half-head
3rd – Levee Bank ($41) – 4 lens
Then followed: Delivered ($201), Northern Knight ($5.50), Mossman Gorge ($5), Ruthless Agent ($11), Ferniehirst ($41), Why Me Lord ($101), Harvest Dream ($61)

 

 

Analysis: All eyes were on Suncraze and Corey Brown landed sixth on the fence after jumping from gate one. Known for needing some racing room, Brown angled four wide approaching the turn and was poised to strike as they straightened. But it's rarely easy for favourite backers, and Kerrin McEvoy was swinging off the Danny Williams-trained Don't Give A Damn after enjoying a handy trail to the turn. Passing the 100m it looked likely Suncraze would draw clear, but Don't Give A Damn fought doggedly – and it would have been interesting had the race been an extra 25m. Northern Knight was expertly handled by Hugh Bowman in the early stages, slotting into the box-seat despite drawing the outside barrier but he was slightly held-up at the top of the straight and should have run third.

Money Trail: The favourite Suncraze was solid – easing slightly from $2.35 to start at $2.50. The notable drifter was Northern Knight – out from $3.80 to $5.50. Don't Give A Damn was supported from $5 into $4.60.

Blackbooker: Don't Give A Damn was giving away plenty of race experience to Suncraze and went down fighting. He did have a 6kg weight pull but I really liked his effort and Danny Williams can place the four-year-old son of Bon Hoffa to advantage going forward.

Race 3 – Rydges Parramatta Benchmark 81 Handicap (1800m)

1st – Quick Defence ($8.50)
2nd – Imanui ($4.60) - head
3rd – Mapmaker ($8) – 1¼ lens
Then followed: Alward ($3 fav), Zaunkonig ($51), Hunter Jack ($17), Vaucluse Bay ($9.50), Egyptian Ruler ($61), Meiner Freccia ($81), Nat King Cu ($9.50), Not Only Florina ($26)

 

 

Analysis: It had been 15 starts and almost 14 months since  Quick Defence last tasted victory and mathematics required that he needed to break 34 secs for his final 600m if he was going to snap that losing streak – and he did it! Stopped the clock at 33.99 secs in nailing Imanui right on the line. Ron Quinton's gelding looked all over the winner 100m from home after chiming in for Christian Reith after enjoying a charmed run midfield off a solid tempo, but Chris Waller's former UK import was too strong when it counted under a vigorous Brenton Avdulla. Mapmaker  had his chance and briefly looked the winner at the top of the straight whilst Alward was given every chance by Hugh Bowman but was too one-paced coming back from 2000m to 1800m.

Money Trail: Alward  was a notable drifter – easing to $3 after opening at $2.15. The first two across the line met with the best support. Quick Defence $11 into $8.50 whilst Imanui  was $6.50 into $4.60. Nat King Cu  was specked at longer odds, firming from $12 into $9.50.

My Tip: Nat King Cu enjoyed the run of the race but was under pressure before the turn and didn't go on. Trainer Jason Coyle indicated he would be sending Nat King Cu for a well-earned spell.

Blackbooker: Mapmaker  was having his first attempt beyond 1600m and made a bold fist of it. He's been placed at his past three starts and with a handy racing pattern should break through shortly for a deserved win.

Race 4 – Stan Fox Stakes (1500m)

1st – Gold Standard ($4.80)
2nd – Sanctioned ($12) – 1¾ lens
3rd – Addictive Nature ($2.10 fav) - length
Then followed: Trapeze Artist ($5), Ace High ($15), Colesberg ($51), The Mission ($11)

 

 

Analysis: The Mission  took a bit longer than most thought to take-up the running, but 1000m from home Corey Brown let him slide and the pace went on. Josh Parr aboard Gold Standard tagged The Mission and was in the right spot turning for home. Favourite Addictive Nature was well poised third but he couldn't match the turn of foot possessed by the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott-trained son of Sebring. Gold Standard was never in danger, careering away to win easily. Sanctioned gave the impression he would get over more ground closing off into second whilst Addictive Nature finished a safely held third. Ace High closed off solidly (fastest final 200m 11.28 secs) and perhaps a longer journey will suit him.

Money Trail: Punters were confident Addictive Nature  could back-up his Ming Dynasty victory, taking the $2.25 and forcing his odds into $2.10. Gold Standard was a bit easy $4.20 out to $4.80. Ace High  was specked from $26 into $15.

My Tip:  Addictive Nature hasn't been good to me so far. Knocked me off last time and failed to deliver this time. I doubt he can win the Golden Rose off that effort.

Blackbooker: Gold Standard has finished in the quinella at all four career starts and has the early pace to take-up a forward position. He's the only one I can see winning the Golden Rose out of this line-up.

Race 5 – Theo Marks Stakes (1300m)

1st – Deploy ($2.80 fav)
2nd – Egg Tart ($5) – 4 lens
3rd – Euro Angel ($9) – ¾ len
Then followed: Dixie Blossoms ($7), Cannyescent ($4.30), Good Project ($11), Mighty Lucky ($67)

 

 

Analysis: First out and first home for the flying Deploy . A confident and aggressive Josh Parr ride was rewarded with a thumping victory – run in track record time. Since being gelded, the son of Fastnet Rock has started nine times for seven wins. Was aided by the fact he was the only leader in the race – but when running these times it doesn't make much difference – nothing can go with him anyway. Egg Tart  closed off gamely (only one in this race to record two consecutive sub 11-secs splits) in a smart return whilst Euro Angel was ridden negatively so was entitled to also close off late.

Money Trail: The money was right with Deploy firming from $3 into $2.80. Egg Tart was a bit on the nose in the betting ring, drifting from $3.30 out to $5. She faced a mathematical impossibility and punters had worked that out pre-race.

My Tip: It all went to plan with Deploy . A confident and aggressive Josh Parr ride aboard a rock hard, in-form horse.

Blackbooker: I won't be dropping off Deploy anytime soon, especially if he sticks to this distance range. But Egg Tart turned in a fantastic first-up run and when she gets out over more ground I am confident she'll be back in the winner's circle.

Race 6 – Sheraco Stakes (1200m)

1st – Ravi ($7.50)
2nd – Perizada ($17) – 2 lens
3rd – Daysee Doom ($7) - nose
Then followed: Magic Alibi ($41), Bonny O'Reilly ($4 fav), Omei Sword ($5), Danish Twist ($20), Almighty Girl ($31), Hussterical ($20), Gibraltar Girl ($19), Denmagic ($16), Ghisoni ($12), Zenalicious ($71)

 

 

Analysis: A handy settling position was the key to getting Ravi  back into the winner's circle. Renowned as a backmarker, the Snowden stable have adopted a more aggressive approach with the five-year-old daughter of Redoute's Choice and it worked wonders. Landing fourth one out, Kerrin McEvoy revved her up turning for home and she shot past a typically game Bonny O'Reilly to win as she liked. Danish Twist ran into traffic down the stretch whilst Ghisoni was the disappointment first-up off a long spell. Omei Sword settled last and that was always going to make it tough. A final 600m of 32.92 secs was the quickest of the race but she was still 3-1/4 lengths shy of the winner.

Money Trail: Ravi was found by punters, backing her into $7.50 from $8.50. Omei Sword's racing pattern saw her odds ease from $3.70 out to $5 whilst Ghisoni also had the wobbles – out from $8 to $12.

Blackbooker: Sticking with the winner Ravi. She can reel off fast closing sectionals and by settling closer she will start winning more races. But you could also make a case to follow Danish Twist , Omei Sword , Daysee Doom and Magic Alibi .

Race 7 – The Run To The Rose (1200m)

1st – Menari ($2.30 fav)
2nd – Pariah ($3.80) – 1½ lens
3rd – Perast ($101) – 1½ lens
Then followed: Kementari ($4), Shogun Sun ($26), Chauffeur ($10), Invader ($21), Diamond Tathagata ($201), Tangled ($81)

 

 

Analysis: Menari 'The Ferrari' certainly has a good ring to it. Josh Parr turned on the afterburners midway down the home straight and Gerald Ryan's son of Snitzel burnt past his rivals for a dominant win. Perast gave a bold sight and stuck on bravely whilst Blake Shinn gave Pariah every chance but he was no match when it counted. Shogun Sun missed the start and closed off strongly (only runner to break 33 secs for final 600m). A good return by Kementari which will strip fitter next time.

Money Trail: Kementari  was backed from $5 into $4 whilst Menari  was rock solid firming from $2.40 into $2.30. Punters didn't have faith in the San Domenico form – Pariah easing from $3.20 to $3.80.

Blackbooker: From a Golden Rose point of view I would have to stick with Menari . He can settle close and has a devastating turn of foot – plus he is a beast. Shogun Sun is under-rated and has a big race win in him. Kementari  to strip fitter.

Race 8 – Fugen Benchmark 90 Handicap (1200m)

1st – Zumbelina ($4.40)
2nd – Tango Rain ($2 fav) – ½ len
3rd – Isorich ($41) – 1½ lens
Then followed: Supreme Effort ($26), Top Striker ($20), Mana ($8.50), Sunny Victory ($101), Gamblestown ($71), Cogliere ($61), Denpurr ($14), Last Witness ($15), Pro Consul ($91), Petrossian ($61)

 

 

Analysis: Punters singled out Tango Rain as the leader and likely winner with only Zumbelina backed to beat him. The race played out as expected with Tango Rain looking the winner as they straightened but a drift away from the fence presented Glyn Schofield with a saloon passage and Chris Waller's four-year-old mare was good enough to take it. Zumbelina is now four from four at Rosehill and four from five on good tracks.

Money Trail: Punters were all over leader Tango Rain – firming $2.30 into $2. But they were also backing Zumbelina which firmed from $5 into $4.40. The big drifters were off pace runners Denpurr $6.50 out to $14 and Supreme Effort $15 to $26.

My Tip: Tango Rain almost did it just the way I had envisaged. But getting off the fence in the straight opened the door for Zumbelina and she was too good on the day.

Blackbooker: Supreme Effort has been strong through the line at two runs this time in. Ran the fastest final 600m of the race (33.09 secs). He's ready to win one soon. Cogliere was strong late when resuming so keep an eye on him. Trained at Port Macquarie so could turn up anywhere.

Race 9 – TAB.com.au Benchmark 84 Handicap (1400m)

1st – Wayanka ($15)
2nd – Interlocuter ($3 fav) – long head (lost on protest)
3rd – Oklahoma Girl ($7) – 1¾ lens
Then followed: Cosmopol ($41), Choice Larga ($61), Makeadane ($101), Peacock ($11), Budderoo Knight ($51), Galaxy Warrior ($7.50), Ebenos ($9), The Pharoah ($4.80), Be Like Dad ($31), Got Unders ($41), He's A Given ($41)

 

 

Analysis: A controversial protest flipped the first two past the post – and it wasn't a flip which punters wanted. Heavily supported Godolphin import Interlocuter overcame a slow start and some trouble in the straight to be first past the post but Tye Angland's celebrations were soured when Brenton Avdulla threw in a protest after finishing a long head away on Wayanka . Avdulla made a good case in the stewards' room and after a long deliberation the objection was upheld. I can see both sides of this case and personally the quaddie paid double thanks to the decision so no complaints from me – but there is no doubt which horse I want to be following out of those two. Oklahoma Girl rattled through the pack to grab third in an eye-catching return.

Money Trail: Interlocuter  was crunched from $4.80 into $3 favourite – thank goodness for the Protest Payout. Galaxy Warrior was specked from $11 into $7.50 whilst the big drifter was Interlocuter's stablemate Peacock - $6 out to $11.

Blackbooker: Interlocuter  gave away race fitness and a couple of lengths at the start yet was still first past the post and strong through the line. He'll relish more ground and is the one to follow out of this race.

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