The dust has settled from Melbourne Cup , so it’s time to think Oaks - Worth $1million, the Group I VRC Kennedy Oaks at Flemington on Thursday is run over a testing 2500m and with no Group I winning fillies engaged it’s an open race of up and comers.
1/ Elusive Express (NZ) ( Jakkalberry (IRE) x Braided, by Elusive Quality (USA) – Not missed a placed in five starts and was second in G1 Thousand Guineas after winning G2 VRC Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m).
By G1 stayer Jakkalberry best known as the sire triple Derby winner Explosive Jack and while she is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Condo’s Express, he was by Rubick and there is a big difference between Rubick and Jakkalberry! Her female family has plenty of European staying blood going back and her fourth dam Paris Royal won the G1 Italian Oaks, so every reason to think she can stay.
2/ Willowy (Kermadec x Dextrous, by Quest for Fame (GB) – Hit line hard to win G2 Wakeful Stakes (2000m) after maiden win at Newcastle over 1600m so obviously on a form upswing.
She’s the fourth stakes-winner from G2 Sandown Guineas winner Dextrous who is by Epsom Derby winner Quest for Fame. She is a sibling to G1 winner Skilled and G2 winners Sidestep and Ambidexter, who were all sprinter milers. Willowy gets the stamina from her sire Kermadec, a G1 winning son of Teofilo that has already give us triple G1 winning filly Montefilia.
3/ Daisies (Sebring x Tigress Lily, by Snitzel) – Won G3 Ethereal Stakes (2000m) and last start second in Wakeful.
By a proven Classic sire in Sebring and her grand-dam is Zabeel mare Empress Lily, who was third in a VRC Oaks and is from New Zealand Horse of the Year Tycoon Lil, who won the NZ Oaks. This family also produced Teewaters to run third in the Victoria Derby on Saturday and am fully expecting Daisies to be in the finish.
4/ Biscayne Bay (Sebring x Fratianne, by Lonhro) – Won G3 SA Sires Produce (1400m) at two and last start third in Ethereal.
Second runner in the race by Sebring, but unlike Daisies, her female family is very much about speed. She is a half-sister to G2 winning sprinter Tenley from a winning grand-daughter of Doncaster and Coolmore Classic winner Skating, the family also producing Golden Slipper winner Vancouver.
5/ Gonnadancelaot (Sir Prancealot (IRE) x Tresillian, by Danehill (USA) – Bolted in at Flemington over 1800m in July, but two spring runs have been lacklustre.
From the first Australian crop of accomplished sprinter Sir Prancealot and is a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter Topaque with all stakes-winners in first three dams being sprinter milers. The best runner so far for Sir Prancealot is G1 Santa Anita American Oaks (2000m) winner Lady Prancealot, but I don’t see Gonnadancelot toppling her from pole position.
6/ Douceur (No Nay Never (USA) x Danalicious, by Zabeel) – Two wins over 1100 and 1200m from eight starts, but good third in G2 Wakeful puts her in the picture.
By No Nay Never, a top class sire that we haven’t really seen the best of here, but he runs at over 8% SW to runner so is no negative although his best stock are generally sprinter milers. Staying potential comes from dam, who is a half-sister by Zabeel to staying SW Northwest Passage with VRC St Leger winner Order of the Sun also on the page. It’s a top class female family that has also produced G1 winning 2YO Summer Passage and former top mare Shania Dane, so an Oaks filly on this page would not look out of place.
7/ Glint of Hope (Jpn) (Deep Impact x Sacred Sight, by Fastnet Rock) – Maiden that has placed in all four starts most recently second in Ethereal after a third in Edward Manifold.
By champion Japanese sire Deep Impact that has already had a G1 winner here this spring in Profondo and is from a half-sister to G1 Royal Ascot Gold Cup winner Colour Vision from German staying stakes-winner Give Me Five, a daughter of Monsun. Never mind the Oaks, this filly is bred to win the Melbourne Cup!
8/ Tiz My Bay (Cable Bay (IRE) x Tiz My View, by Snitzel) – Maiden after eight starts that was fifth Ethereal and sixth in Wakeful after a third in Flemington Oaks Trial (1800m).
By a speed son of Invincible Spirit from an 1100m winner by Snitzel with nothing further back in the family indicating 2500m will be ideal.
9/ Blackcomb (Vancouver x Rocha, by Encosta de Lago) – Maiden after six starts, but was second in Flemington Oaks Trial (1800m) and fifth in Hill Smith Stakes (1800m) before ninth in G2 Moonee Valley Vase (2040m).
Half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter miller Rocha Clock from G2 Wakeful winner Rocha, whose dam Larrocha won G1 SA Oaks and she’s a sister to Victoria Derby winner Blackfriars. Has ability and bred to be here, but maybe autumn will be her time.
10/ Fabiola (Polanski x Fabianska, by Danehill(USA) – Five starts and broke maiden last run at Benalla over 2046m, but not tried in Black Type company.
Her sire Polanski won the Victoria Derby and she is a sister to 1600m stakes-winner Fabulanski and half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter Street Allure. Showed some staying ability last win, but would need a quantum leap to win this.
11/ Morrissette (Pierro x Syrian Bride, by Golan (IRE)- Placed once from five starts, but never further back than fourth and most recent fourth was in the Ethereal.
By terrific classic sire in Pierro and dam is a sister to Victoria Derby winner Kibbutz, so every reason to think Morrissette can improve over the longer trip. Wonder if her stable name is Alanis?
Selections
1/ Glint of Hope
2/ Daisies
3/ Elusive Express
4/ Willowy
Roughie
Douceur
