The top bets from Clinton Payne for Wednesday

Clinton Payne - Tuesday October 17

I think there are two solid win bets at Canterbury on Wednesday while I’ve found one in Sydney and one at Caulfield that are over the odds at this week’s midweek meetings.


I AM SERIOUS (Canterbury Race 3 No 3)
She’s been a beaten favourite in her first two runs for the Chris Waller stable but she profiles perfectly to my eye on Wednesday. She’s drawn wide out in both runs leading up to this but this time she jumps from a favourable gate in barrier three and the way she’s been attacking the line would indicate the 1550m trip is definitely within her reach. The class of this race is slightly harder but I’d suggest it is no stronger in quality to the first two runs she’s had this preparation and I’d expect her to race a bit closer to the speed this time. Odds won’t make you rich but, with even luck, I’m confident she’ll be winning.
ODDS $2.40 
@ Sportsbet ($2.75 Power Play)

EMINENT DUKE (Canterbury Race 5 No 5)
I won’t be charging into Eminent Duke all guns blazing but I reckon he’s well and truly over the odds and worthy of an each-way ticket in this race on Wednesday. Here’s the list of horses he’s finished behind this preparation - Salerno, Isorich, Pick Me Up, Mana, Golden Shoes, Perizada and Kaepernick. Of those races, the lowest grade was a Benchmark 72 when he was beaten a length by Mana, which won its next start in Saturday grade. I know Eminent Duke can mix his form a bit but his last run was OK when only beaten 2-1/4 lengths by Kaepernick and he’s had two goes over this trip at Canterbury for a second and a third. This race is advertised as a Benchmark 68 but in truth it’s a Benchmark 65 and I look at the market and see the favourite Star Of Africa won maiden last start, second favourite Cedarwood has been beaten at this level or below in two runs since winning a maiden, third pick The Cheetah couldn’t win a provincial class one last start and fourth favourite Cordoned won a provincial maiden last time. I don’t which Eminent Duke we’ll get on Wednesday, but if we get the good one he can win this race and $14 is big odds.
ODDS $14 
@ Sportsbet ($16 Power Play), Ladbrokes ($18 Odds Boost), Neds, CrownBet, Luxbet, Bet365, William Hill, Unibet

OSBOURNE BULLS (Caulfield Race 7 No 1)
He’s a good horse in the making this fella. He won his first three starts at the provincials then last time out stepped up to midweek grade in a strong race when he found Invincibella a shade too good, beating the stakes performer My True Love by 4-1/4 lengths into third. Then Invincibella comes out on Saturday in a solid open handicap and wins easily. Comes back slightly in grade on Wednesday but it is a Saturday class race and he’s drawn ideally in barrier three. Already a proven weight carrier, he looks perfectly placed off his last run to record win number four from five starts.
ODDS $3 
@ Sportsbet ($3.35 Power Play), Neds, CrownBet, William Hill, PalmerBet

SUMMER PASSAGE (Caulfield Race 6 No 1)
Genuine Group I performer that is attractively priced in a set weights race where two of the four runners shorter than him still have a bit to prove. He was saved from the wide gate in the Caulfield Guineas for this and knowing he was been prepared for that gives me confidence he will be strong here even if forced to do a bit of work from a sticky gate. He was soft first-up in the Danehill Stakes then made significant improvement second-up in the Guineas Prelude where he carried a 2kg penalty under the set weights and penalties conditions of the race. He’s a horse with plenty of natural speed so I’m expecting him to go forward from his gate, probably travelling outside Crown Witness in the lead. The favourite Jukebox will be hard to beat but he’s going to need a fair bit go his way from barrier 10 and I think playing Summer Passage each-way is a smarter way to handle the race.
ODDS $8 
@ Bet365

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