The top bets from Clinton Payne for Saturday

Clinton Payne - Saturday September 23

I was touched up by the punting gods last week but with the carnival in full swing I won’t be deterred and I’m full bore heading into Saturday.

DON’T GIVE A DAMN (Rosehill Race 3 No 2)
If a formguide counts for anything this bloke will not be getting beaten on Saturday. His debut win at Goulburn was easy before his trainer Danny Williams deep-ended him in a class 3 Highway Handicap against one of the state’s best country-trained prospects Suncraze. Don’t Give A Damn lived up to his name when pushing Suncraze right to the line, going down by a head with a four length space back to the third placegetter. On Saturday, he comes back to class 2 grade, he does rise 4.5kg but his benchmark rating has only risen 1.5kg and the highest rated horse in the race, Exacting has a benchmark rating six points which equates to 3kg below the figure Suncraze went carried into his win two weeks ago which points towards Don’t Give A Damn being much better off here even with the additional weight. I’m not concerned about the step up to 1500m, his debut win was over 1300m. A similar performance to his last run, with even luck, he should be winning.
BET: WIN
ODDS $2.35 @ CrownBet, Bet365

DAWN WALL (Rosehill Race 5 No 9)
Her first-up effort couldn’t have been any more impressive barring the fact that match practice got the better of her late. Think back to the winter months and when she was the stable’s number one seed heading towards the Queensland Oaks before she fell victim to an elevated temperature prior to the Doomben Roses and missing that run no doubt cost her in the Group I grand final. Since that race it’s been her stablemate Egg Tart that’s been all the talk but I haven’t forgotten the events that played out. Looking at now, Dawn Wall’s Queensland misfortune equates to being more than 5kg better off at the handicaps now meaning she can overcome being just 1kg out of the true handicap on Saturday. She won over a similar trip in her only previous second-up run and she’s drawn to get the favours on Saturday. Time to make a statement with some Group I targets ahead in the coming months.
BET: WIN
ODDS $3.60 @ Bet365

AUGUSTUS (Rosehill Race 6 No 7)
This progressive colt has been pretty impressive the way he’s attacked the line in his past two runs. At Warwick Farm he got back in a slowly run race and was held-up entering the straight before getting clear and powering home to get within 1-1/4 lengths of Pandemonium then he went to Hawkesbury over the mile, again travelling back in a slowly run race, held-up attempting to gain clear running before storming home to win in soft fashion running away. Hawkesbury maiden on a Saturday you might say but the race has already produced two winners, and they were in races against the older horses so I wouldn’t be too quick to put the sword to the race. The fifth placegetter Seababe won a class 1/maiden plate at Newcastle last Saturday before the runner-up Langley was a convincing winner in a maiden at Kembla last Sunday. Augustus is out of the dam that has produced an Australian Derby winner and to the eye he’ll eat up the trip. Going place this horse and value on Saturday.
BET: EACH-WAY
ODDS $12 @ Sportsbet ($14 Power Play), Ladbrokes ($16 Odds Boost), CrownBet, Luxbet, William Hill ($14 Price Pump), Bet365, PalmerBet, Unibet

ASSIMILATE (Rosehill Race 7 No 10)
I don’t want to bet against Menari but I also don’t want to take even money about him from a sticky gate where I’m struggling to get him closer than three deep in the run unless he drives forward or goes right back. Therefore, I’ve decided to play the place markets and I’ve really warmed to the progressive Assimilate. His run in the Ming Dynasty was huge and he will appreciate a genuinely run race which is the way I see this being run. The Mission only knows one way then you have Trapeze Artist and Formality drawn out, so I can’t see how they’ll be loafing and that will play into Assimilate’s hands. One last thing, we’ve got that bloke Hugh Bowman in the saddle and he’s already won this race four times so the odds are in our favour that the horse will get a good ride. At $15 (Bet365) I could have something small on him to win the race but the real go for me is for him to be one of the first three across the line.
BET: PLACE
ODDS $3.80 @ Sportsbet

DAYSEE DOOM (Rosehill Race 8 No 4)
Her first-up run was awesome and with a bit of luck of early I think she’ll be extremely hard to hold out on Saturday over her ideal trip. With Lubiton’s scratching it opens the door for Daysee Doom to be ridden more positively and take up a forward spot, all six of her wins have come when travelling in the first few pairs. She’s had six runs at Rosehill for a return of two wins, three placings and a fourth at Group I level and she’s unbeaten in two 1400m runs. Her second-up record reads 3-1-0-0 but don’t be deterred by that, one of those unplaced runs was a 1-1/4 length fourth in the Coolmore Classic this year. She’s a genuine Group I class mare that’s well in here under the set weights and penalties and will give you a great sight.
BET: WIN
ODDS $5 @ Sportsbet ($5.80 Power Play), Ladbrokes ($6.50 Odds Boost), CrownBet, Luxbet, William Hill ($6.50 Price Pump), Bet365, PalmerBet, Unibet

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