The speed map and a trainer on the rise figure prominently in our best bets at Canberra, while weight carrying statistics suggest punters should be wary about launching into the favourite in the get-out stakes.
Hopefully we will have a bank for the big weekend of racing ahead of us by the time the last race of the day arrives at Canberra and won't be tempted in the get-out stakes but if punters are looking to have a bet they should be aware of the record for horses carrying 61.5kg at Canberra in recent years.
The Joe Pride-trained So Spirited is the $2.30 early favourite in the Inglis Class One Handicap (1200m) after finishing a close third at Gosford resuming and was a winner at Beaumont second-up last time but the 61.5kg is a distinct leveller.
Horses carrying 61.5kg at Canberra since January 2013 have a winning strike rate of 11.6 per cent, favourites have fared better at 18 per cent but your punting bank will run out quickly supporting them with a 56 per cent loss on turnover.
So Spirited may well come out and win the race but from a long term statistical perspective the odds are well and truly against him.
Brad Widdup is a trainer going places with 13 winners from his 46 runners and if there is a trainer to blackbook for the months and years ahead this trainer is the one.
Widdup has been a key player in the Darley and Godolphin operations in recent years so the pedigree is there for him to be a successful trainer.
Two Widdup runners feature in our best bets for Canberra on Friday.
I AM SPECIAL (Race 1 No 1)
After a couple of solid trials, I Am Special was expected to win on debut at Muswellbrook but punters did their money cold with the daughter of I Am Invincible buckjumping soon after the start and taking no part in the race.
It was back to the trials with I Am Special racing tractably when less than a length from the winner in a Hawkesbury trial on September 18.
Widdup would have ironed out any issues with I Am Special and I'm expecting the mare to make amends on Friday in the Revive Bathrooms/CMC Hummer Maiden Plate (1000m).
FORCE OF MAGIC (Race 2 No 4)
Force Of Magic from the Keith Dryden and Scott Collings stable has to overcome the Widdup-trained Zabeelions to win the Delegate Hotel Benchmark 68 Handicap (2000m) but does have the speed map in his favour.
Force Of Magic was taken on in front before finishing a brave second over the 2000m at Queanbeyan last time out but is the only genuine on pace runner in the field of six on Friday and should get a leisurely time up front.
If that's the case Zabeelions faces a significant task to run Force Of Magic down.
CAPEABEEL (Race 5 No 5)
The speed map for the Brindabella Stockfeeds Class One and Maiden Plate indicates I Am Special's stablemate Capeabeel is set to get an uncontested lead.
A Bathurst winner resuming two runs back, Capeabeel was a beaten favourite at Tuncurry last start when he looked a run short.
With two runs under his belt this time in and the likelihood of a soft lead, Capeabeel will take plenty of running down.
