The statistics for the 1200m at Tamworth over the last four racings seasons on soft tracks suggest horses on the speed have a significant advantage and a horse fits the bill perfectly in the benchmark 55 over the journey on Sunday.
Horses that settled first of second at their latest outing have a winning strike rate of 30.9 per cent over the 1200m on soft ground with investments on the on pacers generating a profit on turnover of 21.2 per cent.
With a soft (6) track condition posted for racing at Tamworth on Sunday it is interesting to have a look how the speed map shapes up for the Carlton Mid Benchmark 55 Showcase Handicap (1200m).
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Back |
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Mid |
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Leader |
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Dashiell |
Testability |
New Endeavour |
Freedom Fighter |
Delagos |
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Alakai |
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Melted Moment |
Roulette Belle |
Iwatani |
John D'Non |
Boolaroo |
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The Bill Perrett-trained Alakai looks set to get an uncontested lead and has the stats and credentials to win the race.
A winner of three of her 14 career starts to date, Alakai returns from a spell on the back of a solid trial win at Moree on July 20 and two of her wins have come first-up with one of the wins on soft ground.
On the third line of betting in early Sportsbet markets at $8.50 Alakai looks to be well over the odds considering the horses above her in the market namely the favourite Boolaroo is yet to run a place on soft or heavy ground from 26 race starts and the second favourite Iwatani being asked to shoulder 62.5kg with the stats at Tamworth for horses carrying 62.5kg above showing just a 10 per cent success rate punters should be looking for substantially better than the $3.10 and $3.80 offered at the time of writing.
As with all statistics they are a measure over time and are no guarantee that they will hold up on an individual race but they are certainly value is assessing the task horses face and especially the price punters should be prepared to accept for their investment.
In this case Alakai is clearly over the odds with the two favourites very skinny.
