Top bets from Clinton Payne for Saturday

Clinton Payne - Saturday October 14

I was keen to throw a couple of tips in from Caulfield but I haven’t been this keen on a Sydney meeting for quite a while and as the saying goes - the devil you know is better than the devil you don’t.

MEMENTO (Randwick Race 3 No 2)
We kick off the day with a horse that has the credentials to indicate she is way over the odds. She indicated as a juvenile what she is capable of when after travelling three deep throughout she finished third behind Tulip and Alizee in the Magic Night Stakes. A big strong girl, she looked in need of the run first-up before making dramatic improvement last time out, beating the promising Ridicule by 1-1/2 lengths with a space back to third. My one niggling concern here is she’s 1100 to 1400m but that is somewhat offset by the fact that she resumed at 1200m and she’s three and a half weeks between runs so she’s sure to have done her share of work. Drawn the inside gate she is going to be afforded a lovely soft run, giving her every chance to run the trip which my gut tells me she will. A look at the market shows Regimen favourite but she’s only got midweek form and she has to give everything 4kg while Workdrinks is second pick and she’s drawn awkwardly and is the stablemate to Ridicule and I know which one I’d prefer to own.
ODDS $8 @ Sportsbet, Ladbrokes,
  Neds,  CrownBet, Luxbet, Bet365, William Hill, PalmerBet, Unibet,

OKLAHOMA GIRL (Randwick Race 5 No 8)
I absolutely loved this mare’s first-up run when she had to contend with the top weight of 60kg when she ran her last 600m in 2/10s of a second quicker than Interlocuter, which she gave 2.5kg to, and we saw what he did last week to a handy field. Oklahoma Girl has an excellent second-up record and she’s been kept on the fresh side since that first-up run with a trial since the race five weeks ago. I look at this market for Saturday and the $2.70 favourite is her stablemate Invincibella, which recorded a strong win in midweek grade first-up. Let’s compare the two - Oklahoma Girl and Invincibella clashed twice last prep in the Doomben Roses and the Queensland Oaks and Oklahoma Girl came out on top on both occasions beating her 2-1/4 lengths and three-quarters of a length in the Oaks when she suffered interference so with that in mind I’m happy to give the favourite 1kg in weight here. Oklahoma Girl is three from three at the mile and won her only start at Randwick. Also Hugh Bowman, Waller’s number one seed, rode both mares first-up but this time Kerrin McEvoy, the stable’s number two seed is on Oklahoma Girl while Tim Clark rides Invincibella. Simply put, for me, all the factors point to the market having this wrong.
ODDS $8 @ 
Neds,  Luxbet, Bet365

THE VIRGINIAN (Randwick Race 7 No 11)
If my opinion is right that this horse is a genuine sprinter and not a sprinter/middle distance type, then he is massive, massive overs on Saturday. Based on my assessments from his close-up second to Deploy in the Show County Quality he should sit somewhere between $10 and $15 in this. Based on what I’ve said above I’m ignoring his past two runs and I love that he’s been freshened up for this. The race will be run to suit with a genuine gallop expected which allows The Virginian to travel around midfield with a smother from his soft draw, allowing him to pounce late. I concede In Her Time looks extremely hard to beat but she’s rock bottom odds at $3 because of her draw and the pressure that is going to be applied in the first half of the race – She hasn’t drawn barrier 1 this time like she did in the Premiere Stakes. I’m not suggesting you go charging into The Virginian, but the good thing about a $51 chance is you don’t have to have much on to get a good result.
ODDS $51 @ William Hill

CLEARLY INNOCENT (Randwick Race 8 No 5)
Some say you can’t eat value but the mantra of only betting when getting value has served me well over the years and that’s why I’m in Clearly Innocent’s corner. I found this intriguing when trying to line them all up and my conclusion was more about why no than why yes. Is 1200m Clearly Innocent’s prime trip, probably not but his whole preparation has been set around this race second-up and he goes like a bomb second-up. I also love the fact that he’s drawn a gate to allow Hugh Bowman to get him into clear air from the top of the straight because he’s a much better horse with a bit of room rather than being bottled up inside runners. He’s also going to relish the way this race will be run and after the barrier draw, I’d expect him to be ahead of the likes of Chautauqua and English in the run. I think each-way Clearly Innocent is an attractive way to play the race. Now to the others and my concerns. Chautauqua – His racing style, he’s just giving them too much start to back him with any confidence. Vega Magic – Never raced the Sydney way and from the gate he’s probably three deep the trip. Redzel – He’s going to encounter on-pace pressure here like he’s never tasted before. Redkirk Warrior – The form out of his two Flemington wins (Newmarket and Bobbie Lewis) is questionable and he’s got all favours. Deploy – The class of this is a different beast to his first 16 starts. Fell Swoop – Not good enough. Brave Smash – Not good enough. English – Have a look at her winning record when drawn one of the outside couple of gates in a feature sprint. She Will Reign – I just can’t bring myself to back a three-year-old filly in a race like this. Houtzen – Not good enough. Tulip – Not good enough.
ODDS $15 @ CrownBet

MACHINEGUN JUBS (Randwick Race 10 No 8)
She’s a talented mare this and her trainer Angela Davies should be a friend of everyone that has a bet. Davies has a career strike rate of 24.52 percent, for the past three seasons she’s produced a winner strike rate of 30 percent or above and so far this season her 33 percent of winners to runners are returning 30 percent profit on turnover – find me another trainer with figures like that. Machinegun Jubs has won or run second in her four previous first-up starts, she’s got a win and a second from two runs at 1000m, her trial was excellent, she’s drawn well, we’ve got Hugh Bowman in the saddle and as I’ve shown you by highlighting the trainer’s record, Angela Davies knows how to place her horses.
ODDS $5.50 @ Sportsbet, Ladbrokes
Neds CrownBet, Luxbet, Bet365, William Hill, PalmerBet, Unibet,

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