The top bets from Clinton Payne for Saturday

Clinton Payne - Thursday October 19

I’ve found a little bit of everything for Saturday at Randwick and Caulfield.

SHAZEE LEE (Randwick Race 5 No 5)
The way she trialled leading up to this campaign I thought this could be a mare that takes giant strides through the grades this prep but I think she struggled first-up on a rock-hard surface then she did nothing second-up but that was true to form in her previous campaigns but last time out I saw enough to suggest she’s back on track. She was poorly weighted under the set weights and penalties conditions of the Angst Stakes, only receiving 1kg from the likes of Dixie Blossom and Daysee Doom, and should have finished much closer than her beaten margin of 4-3/4 lengths. She got stopped in her tracks at the 300m when surging into the race, on the worst part of the track back to the inside. She won a heat of the Provincial Championships fourth-up last preparation, a bit of rain on the track shouldn’t harm her chances and there looks good speed in Saturday’s race which will suit her. She shouldn’t be these odds dropping back to benchmark 85 grade.
ODDS $13 @
CrownBet , Neds , Bet365, William Hill

NANCY (Randwick Race 7 No 4)
She’s an excellent fresh horse this mare, handles all surfaces and looks well placed on Saturday. Dixie Blossoms and Daysee Doom are coming back to 1200m after running at a mile last time so they have to be vulnerable and therefore I had to find something to beat them as they are holding around 33 percent of the market. I landed on Nancy. In five previous first-up runs she’s finished in the placings on four occasions and first-up last prep she beat Dixie Blossoms home in the Triscay. The fact that the stable has called on Damian Browne is a strong pointer as to what they expect from the mare on Saturday. She’ll get a gentle run around midfield and she’ll be strong late. If the breaks go her way in the run I reckon she’s an each-way bet to nothing.
ODDS $9 @
Sportsbet ($10.50 Power Play)

BLACK ON GOLD (Randwick Race 8 No 2)
He’s a talented horse this bloke and the way he won first-up indicates to me he improved again of his last racing campaign.During the late autumn he won two of his three Sydney starts, probably should have won the other too, before heading to Queensland and falling victim to the ploughed paddock that was Eagle Farm. He’s had the three starts at Randwick for a win and a second and as I said earlier he probably would have won second-up last prep when almost put over the inside fence in the straight and that was the run that reads as his Randwick failure. The first-up win was dominant against a handy field of midweekers. This is harder but he’ll be better for that run and with a benchmark figure of 83, I think he still has room to move within the handicaps. Back him Saturday and stick with him.
ODDS $7.50 @ Bet365

STATE OF PLAY (Caulfield Race 3 No 13)
I think this progressive filly is a great gamble on Saturday. I chanced the arm on her first-up against Alizee based on her barrier trial effort. She found them too slick and too classy there and have bene paying close attention to her progress since. Her second-up run was nothing exciting but then when up to the mile she made sharp improvement, convincing me the time was right to chime in again last start ad it was a painless ride. It was only a Hawkesbury maiden but they don’t win much easier than she did and it was against the older horses. This is a race that favourites have a terrible record in – only one favourite has won the race in seven editions (other winners priced at $7, $7.50, $7.50, $9, $21 and $26) so having a 2000m run under her belt combined with a soft draw, I think she’s worth a good each-way investment.
ODDS $27 @
Sportsbet ($36 Power Play)

ULMANN (Caulfield Race 6 No 5)
He did enough first-up and he’s a horse that improves sharply at his second run from a spell and 1400m is his premium trip. He’s well served here under the set weights and penalties conditions and should be able to secure a good run from the perfect gate. Comes into this out of the Gilgai, traditionally that’s a solid form race for the remainder of the spring and over the Caulfield 1400m trip he’s had a win and a placing from three goes. There’s ok pressure in the race and I think he can land into a spot no worse than midfield and give us a great sight.
ODDS $7 @
Sportsbet ($8 Power Play), CrownBet , William Hill , PalmerBet, Unibet

JOHANNES VERMEER (Caulfield Race 8 No 3)
I can’t go past the lead-up run of this Aidan O’Brien international raider. I loved the way he ate up the ground late to get within a head of Gailo Chop in the Caulfield Stakes, defying the on-pace pattern of the race. Using that run as a guide I can’t see how Jon Snow could turn the tables on him on Saturday and I regard the Kiwi as one of this Galileo stallion’s biggest dangers. Only once during his 13-start career has he backed up in seven days and he won a Group I so that box is ticked and at his only 2400m run he was beaten a half-length in an Irish Group III two starts back when they beat the third horse easily. If he gets even luck in running, he will be hard to stop.
ODDS $4.40 @
Ladbrokes ($4.80 Odds Boost), Bet365

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