Horses heading to Newcastle after a metropolitan run at their latest outing win one in three races and two of our three best bets on Saturday fit the criteria.
The winning strike rate is 32.4 per cent but with 1158 eligible runners in 531 races, a loss of 10 percent on turnover results.
The data is interesting, horses that finished second in town last start performing worse in terms of profitability – without doing an in-depth analysis it would suggest that those horses start at shorter odds than they should be but when we restrict the data to horses that finished third to fifth we move into a profitability situation producing a 4.2 percent profit on turnover.
Two of our best bets finished third in a metropolitan race last start with the data showing an 11 percent profit on turnover for that specific criteria.
The statistics suggest we are on solid punting ground on Saturday.
CHINA GALE (Race 1 No 4)
The Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott doesn’t have a metropolitan placing on his resume but a couple of recent trials suggest the son of Pierro is set for a forward showing resuming in the Newcastle Commercial Properties 3YO Maiden Handicap (1200m).
China Gale won a Randwick trial on August 8 in solid time and the merit of the trial performance has been franked numerous times with the four horses who finished second to fifth in the trial all recent winners.
At $6 in early betting China Gale will give punters a great sight.
ENVY OF ALL (Race 6 No 2)
The Kris Lees-trained Envy Of All rates as the standout bet on the program in the Mayfield Ex-Services Club Class 2 Handicap (900m) after contesting metropolitan races at each her five starts to date including a Canterbury maiden win on heavy track on June 6.
Envy Of All returned from a 16-week break when just over two-lengths from the promising Demerara and Word Drinks when third at Rosehill in a three-year-old fillies benchmark 71.
Envy Of All takes on the older horses on Saturday but reckon she is up to the task.
ISTRIA (Race 8 No 3)
Godolphin mare Istria looks well placed in the Impact Building Benchmark 68 Handicap (1400m) after finishing third behind Slow Burn and Vienna Romance at Canterbury last start following a similar placing resuming two runs back when she had no luck being forced to race wide over the last 700m.
Istria has won two races from eight starts with the victories coming over 1350m and 1400m.
Istria gets to her preferred distance range third-up on Saturday and is ready to win.
