If you are someone that has been around racing for as long as we have you will have noticed a big difference in the way our leading stables now handle their juveniles and if you thought spring 2YO racing was on the wane you would be right.
Today on December 2 we saw six trials for juveniles at Canterbury featuring a myriad of well bred unraced youngsters which is probably indicative of a rush of talented babies set to step out over summer. Click here to read Juvenile Trial Watch.
We’ve taken a look back to see whether this practice of holding juveniles back until after spring is a trend and it turns out it is.
We took a look at how many 2YOs raced before December 1 and also the base number of commercially bred yearlings offered for sale, which gives you a simple picture of 2YO runners against the majority of horses out there capable of being up and going at two.
That base number has barely changed and is usually around 6500 horses, of course you do miss the Godolphin horses that are homebred and not offered for sale, but it’s still a good chunk of the thoroughbred foal crop that are bred with the intent to be prepared to race at two.
What we see plain as day is a 48% decline in the number of 2YOs that race before December 1 in 2025 as opposed to 10 years ago in 2016. In 2016 415 2YOs had raced before summer and in 2025 just 215.
We moved the calendar forward to look at 2YOs that race before April 1, which takes in the big banger horses that have aimed up at the Blue Diamond and Golden Slipper.
In that time frame the decline between 2016 and 2024 was 24%.
Lastly, we looked at the whole season where the decline from 2016 to 2024 was just 16%, so while the overall number has dropped to a smaller extent, it is the way in which we see them step out that has changed.
The introduction of races such as $20million The Everest and $10million Golden Eagle along with a slew of other rich races would be a contributing factor in trainers electing to be patient rather than pushing on for a short term gain.
A horse with genuine talent can be earning massive pay checks for it’s entire career, rather than just one season if handled right.
There will always be natural up and going 2YOs that mature fast and can dominate their peers at an age when most of them are just not there for the battle, but we need to take the achievements of those horses with a real grain of salt given the limited opposition they face.
Racing horses at two is a positive step in their development and education, laying the bedrock on which to build a long lasting career, but hammering them early in the chase of the dollar has ruined plenty and from a welfare point of view the current trend towards patience is a good one.
