The winning strike rate for horses carrying 61kg or more at Rosehill since January 1, 2013 is just 6.8% for a loss on turnover of 67.2% with only one horse winning at the track this calendar year burdened with that weight or more.
The horse in question was Invincible Knight who, under Hugh Bowman carried the 61kg on a heavy (8) winning over 1350m back on June 17.
A couple of the horses weighted in the 61kg or above bracket tomorrow have apprentices lessening the impost but that doesn’t make a great deal of difference to the stats at Rosehill.
- 1.5kg apprentices have a 9% winning strike rate on horses 61kg and above
- 2kg apprentices 4% winning strike rate
- 3kg apprentices 3% winning strike rate
As always with the work I do on stats, they are a measure of profitability and probability over a period of time and we can finish with egg on our faces but the stats are issuing a warning tomorrow, and that is beware of a handful of runners with big weights.
There's certainly food for thought with Awoke, a short-priced favourite in Race 2 and the second and third horses, Chatuchak and Gretna all weighted on 61kg while Hogmanay an Special Missile are both prominent in betting in Race 8 and each have been weighted on 62kg although they both get 3kg off for claiming apprentices.
